Stocks always go up

Except when they don’t.

And not just for a quarter or two – sometimes for decades, and sometimes permanently in real terms.

A few reminders:

• Germany, 1920s – The stock market initially soared, but hyperinflation wiped out any real value. Nominal prices went up; purchasing power didn’t.

• Russia, 1917 – Private property was nationalized. Shareholders were effectively wiped out.

• China, 1949 – Same story. Companies were nationalized; existing equity claims disappeared.

• Japan, 1989 – The market fell ~80% from the peak. It took more than 30 years to reclaim the prior nominal high (and that’s before you adjust for inflation).

• Greece, 2007–2016 – The market fell over 90% during the sovereign debt crisis. Many banks and companies were effectively wiped out.

• China, 2007 – The Shanghai Composite dropped ~70% and is still below its 2007 high nearly two decades later.

• United States, 1929–1932 – The market fell ~85–90%. Thousands of banks failed. Unemployment exceeded 20%.

“Stocks always go up” only makes sense if:

• You’re talking about very long periods, and

• You’re diversified across countries, sectors, and regimes

If you’re in or nearing retirement, you don’t live in an infinite‑time‑horizon, so be careful.

That’s why we build portfolios across:

• Global equities (public and private)

• Bonds (public and private)

• Real assets (real estate, infrastructure, etc.)

• Diversifying strategies (long/short, trend following, arbitrage, etc.)

Stay diversified out there.