People get away with saying nonsense because everyone eventually moves on and forgets.
The hysteria around private credit earlier this year is a perfect example.
Public BDCs were trading at a 16% discount to NAV, and many took that as evidence that private credit was headed for serious trouble.
Despite every other instance of this happening resulting in outsized returns the following 12 months, surely this time would be different.
It wasn’t.
Since then:
- Private credit has continued to generate positive returns.
- Defaults have remained relatively low.
- Credit quality is mostly healthy.
- Public BDCs have rallied as discounts narrowed while investors collected substantial dividend income. For many, total returns have been in the 15–20% range.
The media’s incentive is to get people to read what they are writing or listen to what they are talking about.
Just tune out that noise and focus on data.