The Most Common Outcome for a Single Stock? -100%

Every concentrated-stock client I meet says the same thing: “My stock is different.”

This is the range of outcomes for some of their stocks this year:

  • Best: +122%
  • Worst: –58%
  • Everything else scattered in between

Here’s the uncomfortable truth:

Over long periods, the most common outcome for an individual stock is eventually going to zero.

The line “over decades, markets always go up” does not apply to a highly volatile, concentrated position. The risk of permanent wealth destruction is simply too high.

In quant‑speak:

  • The market’s wealth distribution is skewed by the winners
  • But the wealth distribution of one high‑volatility stock tends to drift toward zero the longer you hold it

What if you could:

  • Diversify out of that concentrated position
  • Without triggering a massive tax bill
  • And rebalance into a portfolio where the odds are actually tilted in your favor?

That’s exactly what tax‑aware long/short and other tools are designed to do.

If you’re sitting on a concentrated position and are finally ready to accept the math, and want to see how we can diversify it as tax‑efficiently as possible, the easiest way to explore it is a brief call – the link is in my profile.

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