Public equity markets are more concentrated today than at any point in decades:
• The number of U.S. public companies is roughly half what it was ~30 years ago
• The top 10 stocks now make up close to 40% of the S&P 500
• The median IPO today is a far more mature business, often 2x as old as IPOs decades ago
At the same time, nearly 90% of large, profitable companies remain privately held.
So we’re living through a structural shift:
• A shrinking public universe
• A growing private universe
• A widening valuation gap between the two
Historically, private equity has tended to outperform in environments where public market valuations are elevated and concentrated like this.
That’s one reason a meaningful portion of my own long-term growth exposure sits in private markets, including stakes in companies like Anthropic.
The best part?
We invest across hundreds of private companies inside Roth IRAs, so that long-duration compounding happens tax-free.